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2. A CONSPECTUS OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS IN DIFFERENT

COUNTRIES.

Opinions differ widely concerning the relations between the economic fortunes of different countries. One prevalent view, often implied in discussions of public policy though seldom avowed openly, is that competition for foreign markets and foreign investments makes ohe nation's gain another nation's loss. A second view is that small countries with a vast commerce-England, the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden and Norway-experience prosperity or depression as world business quickens or slackens; but that nations with a continental spread need feel slight concern about foreign factors-to them internal development is of overshadowing importance. There is still a third view, that business enterprise has been silently establishing a "world economy", a "commercial league of nations", in which all the members prosper or suffer together.

Needless to say, the annals do not give clear proof or disproof of any of these contentions. But they do indicate a trend in the direction of "world economy".

To facilitate international comparisons of economic fortunes, the annals of all the countries studied have been compressed into a single table. This conspectus begins with the United States and England in 1790, adds France in 1840, Germany in 1853, Austria in 1867, and 12 other countries in 1890. For the last generation it affords a fair view of world experience. The entries have the bleakness of statistical averages; they do not indicate the complexity of conditions prevailing every year within each country. For most purposes the fuller form of the annals given on later pages should be used rather than the conspectus. But it is only as we concentrate in each country upon the net resultant of its diverse conditions that we can gain a clear view of the international similarities and diversities. Even the conspectus is not simple enough to tell its own story; it needs to be analyzed and summarized, as the reader who looks it over will agree.

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England..... Uneven prosper- Boom; recession Deep depression Depression;

re

ity

vival

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1862

United States War activity

1864

1865

War activity Boom; recession England..... Uneven prosper- Uneven prosper- Uneven prosper- Prosperity

ity

1863

War activity

ity

strain

ity; financial

nancial panic

France...... Mild depression Uneven depres- Depression; fi- Depression

sion

Germany.... Uneven prosper- Moderate

ity

perity

pros- Moderate pros- Prosperity

perity

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Prosperity

perity

England..... Prosperity; panic Prosperity

France....... Prosperity; reces- Depression; Revival

sion; depres- panic

sion

Germany.... Prosperity; brief Prosperity

recession

Prosperity

Austria...... Slow recession Mild depression Revival;

1873 Prosperity; panic; sion Prosperity;

reces

re

de

pression

cession Recession;

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perity

1874

1875

United States Depression

Depression

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England..... Depression

Depression

Depression

Depression

France..

Mild depression

Revival

Gradual recession

Mild depression

Germany..

Depression

Depression

Depression

Slow revival

Austria.

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